| DEAL PARTIES | PRICE LEVELS | TARGET PERCENTAGES | ODDS | TIMING | COMPS | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target | Acquirer | Target listing | Five-day liquidity (USD mn) | Target original | Target break | Target break w/ RT fee | Target now | Offer | Premium | Gross downside | Downside w/ RT fee | Gross spread | All-in spread | Ann. all-in | Implied gross chance of close | Implied all-in chance of close | Profit pool (USD mn) | Undisturbed date | Official closing guidance | Spitzer closing estimate | Target break, 1W %Δ | Implied gross chance of close, 1W Δ | Comp tickers for target |
| Norfolk Southern | Union Pacific | US | 210 | 260.32 | 264.34 | 272.18 | 309.67 | 361.61 | 38.9% | 14.6% | 12.1% | 16.8% | 19.8% | 17.0% | 47% | 38% | 15,420 | 2025-07-16 | 2H27 | 2027-11-30 | -0% | 1% |
CNI
CSX
CP
601006.SS
|
| Dominion Energy | NextEra Energy | US | 272 | 61.73 | 60.95 | 64.79 | 60.77 | 62.28 | 0.9% | -0.3% | -6.6% | 2.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | — | — | 3,763 | 2026-05-15 | 2H27 | 2027-09-30 | 1% | — |
FE
SO
GNE
DUK
|
| Teck Resources | Anglo American | US | 222 | 35.11 | 58.71 | 59.39 | 65.86 | 71.61 | 105.5% | 14.4% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 0.2% | — | 73% | 98% | 3,100 | 2025-09-08 | 2H26 | 3Q26 | -3% | -29% |
SCCO
CSC.AX
FCX
0358.HK
61%
HINDZINC.NS
NYR.BR
S32.AX
TV.TO
39%
|
| Banca Generali | Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena | Italy | 9 | 66.25 | 56.78 | 56.78 | 64.25 | 81.77 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 27.3% | 15.6% | 41.6% | 30% | 43% | 2,952 | 2026-08-18 | 1Q27 | 1Q27 | -0% | -6% |
STJ.L
LPLA
RJF
SF
65%
HBAN
RF
CFG
KBC.BR
35%
|
| Axalta Coating Systems | AkzoNobel | US | 52 | 28.18 | 26.78 | 27.27 | 32.23 | 42.12 | 49.5% | 16.9% | 15.4% | 30.7% | -5.7% | — | 36% | — | 2,779 | 2025-11-17 | 4Q26 | 2026-11-30 | -1% | 2% |
PPG
SHW
RPM
|
| Brighthouse Financial | Aquarian Holdings VI | US | 60 | 51.09 | 55.25 | 58.26 | 49.87 | 70.00 | 37.0% | -10.4% | -16.8% | 40.4% | 40.4% | 219.9% | — | — | 1,722 | 2025-01-27 | 2H26 | 2026-12-06 | -0% | — |
ELV
MOH
100%
|
| Subsea 7 | Saipem | Norway | 6 | 181.60 | 283.89 | 283.89 | 325.00 | 339.09 | 86.7% | 12.7% | 12.7% | -2.5% | 11.2% | 12.6% | — | 53% | 1,217 | 2025-02-21 | 2H26 | 2H26 | -4% | — |
TTI
FTI
BKR
SLB
82%
FTI
NKT.CO
PRYSMIAN.MI
NEXANS.PA
18%
|
| UniFirst | Cintas | US | 82 | 170.16 | 176.94 | 192.52 | 251.78 | 305.78 | 79.7% | 29.7% | 23.5% | 21.4% | 21.9% | 86.8% | 58% | 52% | 1,151 | 2025-12-19 | 4Q26 | 2026-12-31 | -4% | -1% |
VSTS
RTO.L
JSG.L
ELIS.PA
|
| Supernus Pharmaceuticals | Indivior Pharmaceuticals | US | 26 | 44.63 | 44.25 | 46.35 | 43.22 | 55.26 | 23.8% | -2.4% | -7.2% | 27.9% | 28.2% | 311.9% | — | — | 894 | 2026-07-31 | 2026-11-02 | 2026-11-02 | 1% | — |
AZN
ABBV
NVS
BMY
|
| ZIM Integrated Shipping Services | Hapag-Lloyd | US | 70 | 22.20 | 29.87 | 30.80 | 29.33 | 35.00 | 57.7% | -1.8% | -5.0% | 19.3% | 19.3% | 153.4% | — | — | 815 | 2026-02-13 | 4Q26 | 4Q26 | -15% | — |
MAERSK-B.CO
1919.HK
2603.TW
2609.TW
|
| Iridium Communications | Rocket Lab | US | 46 | 43.52 | 50.23 | 50.23 | 47.98 | 54.00 | 24.1% | -4.7% | -4.7% | 12.6% | 14.8% | 19.7% | — | — | 771 | 2026-06-26 | 2027-07-01 | 2027-07-01 | -3% | — |
VSAT
ETL.PA
SESG.PA
TSAT
|
| Roku | Fox | US | 245 | 119.64 | 104.81 | 110.66 | 152.39 | 156.83 | 31.1% | 31.2% | 27.4% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 91% | 88% | 675 | 2026-06-11 | 1H27 | 1H27 | -3% | 0% |
NFLX
FUBO
|
| easyJet | Apollo Management X | UK | 27 | 3.94 | 3.51 | 3.51 | 6.78 | 7.15 | 81.4% | 48.1% | 48.1% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 19.9% | 90% | 87% | 533 | 2026-05-28 | 1Q27 | 1Q27 | -2% | -4% |
RYAAY
LUV
JBLU
86%
EXPE
GBTG
TRIP
BKNG
14%
|
| Tate & Lyle | Ingredion | UK | 9 | 3.75 | 3.82 | 3.82 | 5.59 | 5.95 | 58.8% | 31.7% | 31.7% | 6.4% | 13.5% | 10.8% | 83% | 70% | 476 | 2026-05-13 | 2H27 | 2H27 | -2% | -11% |
KHC
UL
|
| TXNM Energy | Troy ParentCo | US | 101 | 51.27 | 47.70 | 49.83 | 58.38 | 61.25 | 19.5% | 18.3% | 14.6% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 10.7% | 79% | 67% | 392 | 2025-03-04 | 1H27 | 2027-05-31 | 0% | 4% |
SO
FE
DUK
EXC
|
| Suzhou Jinfu Technology | Zhejiang Changfengce Enterprise Management | China | 13 | 4.40 | 4.41 | 4.41 | 4.80 | 6.20 | 40.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 29.2% | 29.2% | 231.4% | 22% | 22% | 344 | 2026-08-20 | 4Q26 | 4Q26 | 3% | -22% |
CLS.TO
FLEX
SANM
JBL
56%
300750.SZ
1211.HK
6752.T
373220.KS
32%
TER
KLAC
KEYS
6857.T
12%
|
| Silicon Laboratories | Texas Instruments | US | 62 | 136.62 | 233.46 | 244.04 | 221.60 | 231.00 | 69.1% | -5.4% | -10.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.1% | — | — | 323 | 2026-02-03 | 1H27 | 1H27 | -4% | — |
AMD
AVGO
QCOM
2454.TW
|
| AES | Global Infrastructure Partners | US | 127 | 11.07 | 13.58 | 14.16 | 14.90 | 15.00 | 35.5% | 8.9% | 5.0% | 0.6% | 3.0% | 6.0% | 93% | 62% | 320 | 2025-07-08 | 4Q26 | 2027-03-31 | -0% | 11% |
IDA
POR
EXC
DUK
|
| Essential Utilities | American Water | US | 79 | 41.21 | 39.83 | 41.87 | 39.23 | 39.60 | -3.9% | -1.5% | -6.7% | 0.9% | 2.9% | 5.8% | — | — | 309 | 2025-10-24 | 1Q27 | 2027-03-31 | -1% | — |
SVT.L
UU.L
PNN.L
AWR
54%
NFG
OGS
NJR
ATO
46%
|
| Caesars Entertainment | Fertitta Entertainment | US | 195 | 20.77 | 17.45 | 19.00 | 29.66 | 31.00 | 49.3% | 41.2% | 36.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 90% | 89% | 284 | 2026-02-25 | 2H27 | 2027-06-30 | -6% | 1% |
MGM
1128.HK
ENT.L
WYNN
71%
CHH
MAR
IHG.L
HLT
17%
KIND-SDB.ST
RSI
DKNG
GAMB
12%
|