| DEAL PARTIES | PRICE LEVELS | TARGET PERCENTAGES | ODDS | TIMING | CHANGES | COMPS | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target | Acquirer | Target listing | Five-day liquidity (USD mn) | Target original | Target break | Target break w/ RT fee | Target now | Offer | Premium | Gross downside | Downside w/ RT fee | Gross spread | All-in spread | Ann. all-in | Implied gross chance of close | Implied all-in chance of close | Profit pool (USD mn) | Undisturbed date | Official closing guidance | Spitzer closing estimate | Target break, 1W %Δ | Implied gross chance of close, 1W Δ | Comp tickers for target |
| Warner Bros Discovery | Paramount Skydance | US | 556 | 12.54 | 8.63 | 10.54 | 26.04 | 31.00 | 147.2% | 67.0% | 59.5% | 19.1% | 19.1% | 38.7% | 78% | 76% | 14,644 | 2025-09-10 | 1H27 | 2027-01-31 | 18% | 3% |
ATUS
DISH
CABO
BKR
43%
6758.T
CMCSA
LGF-A
DIS
29%
CMCSA
DIS
ROKU
NFLX
28%
|
| Norfolk Southern | Union Pacific | US | 430 | 260.32 | 333.44 | 341.28 | 340.18 | 384.01 | 47.5% | 2.0% | -0.3% | 12.9% | 13.3% | 10.1% | 13% | — | 12,847 | 2025-07-16 | 2027-07-01 | 2027-11-15 | -2% | 12% |
CNI
CSX
CP
|
| Dominion Energy | NextEra Energy | US | 233 | 61.73 | 59.72 | 63.57 | 68.81 | 71.02 | 15.0% | 13.2% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 80% | 60% | 4,424 | 2026-05-15 | 2H27 | 2027-09-09 | -4% | -12% |
FE
SO
GNE
DUK
|
| Teck Resources | Anglo American | US | 210 | 35.11 | 57.49 | 57.96 | 64.48 | 69.89 | 99.1% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 8.4% | -0.3% | — | 56% | — | 2,900 | 2025-09-08 | 2H26 | 3Q26 | 1% | 5% |
SCCO
TKO.TO
FM.TO
FCX
61%
HINDZINC.NS
NEXA
S32.AX
TV.TO
39%
|
| Axalta Coating Systems | AkzoNobel | US | 70 | 28.18 | 32.35 | 32.84 | 37.56 | 47.40 | 68.2% | 13.9% | 12.6% | 26.2% | 23.1% | 71.5% | 35% | 35% | 2,670 | 2025-11-17 | 4Q26 | 2026-11-30 | 3% | 15% |
PPG
SHW
RPM
|
| ZIM Integrated Shipping Services | Hapag-Lloyd | US | 23 | 22.20 | 22.85 | 23.79 | 26.72 | 35.00 | 57.7% | 14.5% | 11.0% | 31.0% | 31.0% | 109.8% | 32% | 26% | 1,306 | 2026-02-13 | 4Q26 | 4Q26 | -1% | — |
MAERSK-B.CO
1919.HK
2603.TW
|
| Subsea 7 | Saipem | Norway | 19 | 181.60 | 352.23 | 352.23 | 327.80 | 337.97 | 73.9% | -7.5% | -7.5% | -3.7% | 11.2% | 18.1% | — | — | 1,091 | 2025-02-21 | 2H26 | 2H26 | -4% | — |
TTI
FTI
BKR
SLB
82%
FTI
NKT.CO
PRYSMIAN.MI
18%
|
| Kenvue | Kimberly-Clark | US | 469 | 14.37 | 16.53 | 16.94 | 19.25 | 19.56 | 36.1% | 14.1% | 12.0% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 8.0% | 89% | 81% | 1,028 | 2025-10-31 | 2H26 | 2026-10-31 | -2% | — |
HLN
VTRS
CL
PG
42%
EL
BEI.DE
OR.PA
PG
27%
ESSITY-A.ST
PG
UL
31%
|
| Iridium Communications | Rocket Lab | US | 73 | 43.52 | 45.70 | 45.70 | 49.56 | 56.67 | 30.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 14.4% | 16.5% | 10.7% | 35% | 32% | 969 | 2026-06-26 | 1H27 | 1H27 | -5% | — |
VSAT
ETL.PA
SESG.PA
|
| Element Solutions | Solstice Advanced Materials | US | 225 | 43.64 | 42.50 | 43.61 | 38.88 | 42.03 | -3.7% | -9.3% | -12.2% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 5.7% | — | — | 936 | 2026-07-02 | 1H27 | 1H27 | -0% | — |
APD
DD
4063.T
70%
MMM
HON
EVK.DE
EMN
30%
|
| easyJet | Apollo Management X | UK | 29 | 3.94 | 4.27 | 4.27 | 6.38 | 7.15 | 81.4% | 33.1% | 33.1% | 12.1% | 12.1% | — | 73% | 73% | 876 | 2026-05-28 | — | — | 6% | -13% |
RYAAY
LUV
JBLU
86%
EXPE
TRIP
BKNG
TCOM
14%
|
| Globalstar | Amazon | US | 127 | 68.53 | 85.26 | 87.67 | 83.79 | 89.64 | 30.8% | -1.7% | -4.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.0% | — | — | 803 | 2026-04-01 | 2H27 | 2H27 | -3% | — |
VSAT
ETL.PA
SESG.PA
|
| AvalonBay Communities | Equity Residential | US | 133 | 174.28 | 192.34 | 196.97 | 188.48 | 188.39 | 8.1% | -2.0% | -4.5% | -0.0% | -0.4% | — | — | — | 733 | 2026-04-27 | 2H26 | 2H26 | -1% | — |
INVH
UDR
CPT
ESS
|
| Steadfast Group | Amwins Group | Australia | 16 | 3.95 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 5.26 | 6.00 | 51.9% | 14.5% | 14.5% | 14.1% | 14.1% | — | 51% | 51% | 657 | 2026-06-09 | — | — | 2% | 2% |
WTW
AON
MMC
AJG
|
| Brighthouse Financial | Aquarian Holdings VI | US | 44 | 51.09 | 46.35 | 49.74 | 62.47 | 70.00 | 37.0% | 25.8% | 20.4% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 68% | 63% | 601 | 2025-01-27 | 2H26 | 2H26 | 4% | 0% | — |
| easyJet | Castlelake | UK | 29 | 3.94 | 4.27 | 4.27 | 6.38 | 6.90 | 75.0% | 33.1% | 33.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | — | 80% | 80% | 572 | 2026-05-28 | — | — | 6% | -9% |
RYAAY
LUV
JBLU
86%
EXPE
TRIP
BKNG
TCOM
14%
|
| Essential Utilities | American Water | US | 95 | 41.21 | 43.52 | 45.56 | 39.35 | 40.57 | -1.6% | -10.6% | -15.8% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 7.4% | — | — | 553 | 2025-10-24 | 1Q27 | 1Q27 | -1% | — |
SVT.L
UU.L
PNN.L
VIE.PA
54%
NFG
OGS
NJR
ATO
46%
|
| TXNM Energy | Blackstone Infrastructure | US | 52 | 51.27 | 48.08 | 50.67 | 57.57 | 61.25 | 19.5% | 16.5% | 12.0% | 6.4% | 10.1% | — | 72% | 54% | 525 | 2025-03-04 | 1H27 | 2027-05-31 | -3% | 3% |
SO
FE
DUK
EXC
|
| Silicon Laboratories | Texas Instruments | US | 68 | 136.62 | 212.64 | 223.30 | 218.13 | 231.00 | 69.1% | 2.5% | -2.4% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 30% | — | 449 | 2026-02-03 | 1H27 | 1H27 | -1% | -15% |
AMD
AVGO
QCOM
NVDA
|
| Tate & Lyle | Ingredion | UK | 25 | 3.75 | 4.23 | 4.23 | 5.53 | 5.95 | 58.8% | 23.4% | 23.4% | 7.7% | 14.9% | 8.2% | 75% | 61% | 445 | 2026-05-13 | 2H27 | 2H27 | 2% | -18% |
MKC
THS
KHC
UL
|